FORECASTING OF AREA, PRODUCTION AND PRODUCITIVITY OF RAGI IN ANDHRA PRADESH USING ARIMA MODELS
Publication Date : 28/02/2015
This paper attempted to identify the trends of area, production and productivity of Ragi (Figer millet) in Andhra Pradesh through fitting different Time series models like ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing techniques. Influence of weather parameters on area, production and productivity of Ragi crop by using Karl Pearson’s correlation and Multiple Linear Regression Analysis was also studied. From the best fitted model forecasting of area, production and productivity was also done. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was identified as the best model for area, production and Linear trend was identified as the best model for productivity of the observed data . Accordingly, forecasting was done for the Ragi area, production and productivity up to 2020 AD. It was observed that there was an increasing trend in the productivity, but both area and production was in the decreasing trend during the study period. It was observed that among all the weather parameters Morning Relative Humidity (RH1) was negatively significant on area and production but it was positively significant on production. In the year 2020 the Ragi cultivated area will be 9100 hectares with a production of 16200 tonnes with an average productivity of 1303 kg ha-1. Key words: ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average), Exponential Smoothing, Karl Pearson’s correlation, Multiple Linear regression, Theil’s U-Statistic, R2, Adj R2 and MAPE.
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